CSUF sees tiny O.C. home-price gain in 2010

As seen in the Orange County Register:

Cal State Fullerton’s dean of business forecasts that Orange County home prices will continue dropping until mid-2010, then will climb no more than 2% to 3% by the end of the year.

Appreciation likely will remain in the 3% to 5% range for several years after that, added Anil Puri, dean of the CSUF Mihaylo College of Business and Economics.

The rapid, double-digit gains of the recent past are just that: a thing of the past, he said.

“We don’t expect much of an increase in housing prices, but the decline in housing prices will end in 2010,” Puri said. “We don’t expect housing prices to start increasing until the second part of the year, and (it will be) very little in the second half.”

Demand for housing is tied to employment growth, and the CSUF economic forecast for Orange County, released Tuesday, doesn’t foresee any increases in payroll until the latter half of next year.

A bump in mortgage payment resets in early 2010 also is expected to unleash a new wave of foreclosures that could impact local housing.

“We don’t know how big that will be, but we will see (an increase) in foreclosures,” he said.

In a sense, that’s the good news — or as good as it gets. CSUF’s real estate forecast adds:

“The commercial real estate market, on the other hand, presents a gloomier picture and will be the next troubled spot. According to FDIC, one-sixth of all construction loans were in trouble in the second quarter of this year, placing additional strains on regional and local banks which are the major lenders to small businesses. All indicators suggest that this market is a particular danger zone.”

The forecast predicts that office vacancies will hit 20% in mid-2010; industrial vacancies, 16%; and as much as 13% of retail space will be empty.